Optimization of China’s provincial carbon emission transfer structure under the dual constraints of economic development and emission reduction goals

The contradiction between China’s economic development and the reduction of carbon emission is increasingly deepening along with the complex carbon emission transfer. Optimizing provincial-level carbon emission transfer in China is important for facilitating economic development and carbon emission reduction. Under these dual constraints, this study uses the slacks-based measure, marginal abatement cost, and geographically and temporally weighted regression models to measure the economic and carbon emission reduction effects and the carbon emission reduction baseline. Then, the optimization strategy and path of provincial carbon emission transfer network structure are proposed to provide policy support for achieving the dual goals of economic development and carbon emission reduction in China. This article draws the following important research conclusions. First, under the three economic development scenarios, provinces in the eastern coastal developed regions are capable of completing the expected carbon emission reduction, whereas the underdeveloped provinces in the central and northern regions are not. Second, from the perspective of the economic effect of carbon emission transfer, carbon emission transfer from most provinces promotes economic development, whereas carbon emission transfer from a few economically underdeveloped provinces hinders economic development. Third, from the perspective of the carbon emission reduction impact of carbon emission transfer, carbon emission transfer in the northeast region has a negative impact on carbon emission reduction, and carbon emission transfer in developed regions also has a negative impact on carbon emission reduction. Fourth, the optimization of the carbon emission transfer can be divided into four categories.