An extended STIRPAT model and forecast of carbon emission based on green consumption behaviors: evidence from China

An extended STIRPAT model was constructed to explore the impact of green consumption behaviors on carbon emission. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019, this paper analyzed the effect of green consumption behaviors, regional population size, economic development level and technological level on carbon emission, and then forecasted the carbon emission in eastern, central and western China from 2020 to 2035. The results demonstrate that carbon emission increases with the expansion of population size; green consumption behaviors have a significant moderating effect on carbon emission and alleviate the pressure of population growth on carbon emission; instead of following the environmental Kuznets curve, the trend of carbon emission shows an inverted “N” curve with economic growth; There is a positive correlation between technological progress and carbon emission; the increase in the level of consumers’ expenditure and the ratio of the secondary industry output value over the total GDP lead to an increase in carbon emission, while the improvement of the urbanization level reduces carbon emission. Policy implications and prospects are also discussed.