Stochastic Disturbance Propagation Model Analysis of Power Grids Based on Epidemic Model and Improved Clustering

Based on epidemic model, a stochastic disturbance propagation model of power grids is proposed in this paper. Firstly, compared with epidemic model, some concepts in power grids are introduced. Then, by analyzing parameters of the nodes, some key nodes are extracted. Hence, the complex power grids are divided into some simple power grids. For the simple power grids, taking Markovian chain into account, the probability of the propagation is solved backward. Combined with the probability and the parameters of the power grids, a model describing importance of the nodes is established. Finally, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model, an improved clustering algorithm is proposed. The simulation results show that the model has high accuracy in selecting the key nodes. Moreover, it provides an effective method in prediction of power grids.