CO2 emissions in China’s power industry by using the LMDI method

WIth the introduction of “carbon peak and neutrality” targets, China’s power industry is under enormous pressure to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as it produces more than 40% of emissions. In response, China’s power industry is actively reducing the investment in thermal energy and gradually shifting toward non-fossil energy sources. However, the CO2 reduction effect of these measures is still unknown. This study aims to analyze CO2 emissions from China’s power industry from 2009 to 2018 from an entire lifecycle perspective, considering that CO2 emissions also exist in non-fossil power generation. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method is employed to identify the factors influencing CO2 emissions. Then, the modified STochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology model is used for comparative validation. The results show that (1) CO2 emissions from China’s power industry increased significantly, from 276.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent (Mtce) in 2009 to 436.44 Mtce in 2018; (2) the investment intensity, investment structure, and emission intensity dampen CO2 emissions, with cumulative contribution rates of − 28.88%, − 11.89%, and − 3.16%, respectively. The investment efficiency, economic development level, and population size contribute to CO2 emissions, with cumulative contribution rates of 29.76, 24.68, and 1.07%, respectively; and (3) Investment into the hydropower contributes the least to CO2 emissions, followed by wind, nuclear, photovoltaic, and thermal power. These research findings suggest that the power industry should improve its investment decision-making capabilities and pay particular attention to the hydropower-led non-fossil energy sector.