How to achieve carbon neutrality and low-carbon economic development—evidence from provincial data in China

“Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality” is a major strategy for China to cope with climate change at present. We define the carbon neutrality capability (CNC) to reflect the current situation of regional carbon neutrality, and propose a new coupling model to explore the coupling relationship between regional economic development and carbon neutrality capability (CNC). Finally, the influence mechanism of the energy consumption structure on CNC was further discussed by using STRIPAT model. The results show that: during we study period, the national average carbon sink was about 77.89 Mt, and the carbon sinks in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Sichuan and Yunnan were as high as 164 Mt, mainly concentrated in the western region. The national average carbon source is 222.12 Mt, which is about three times that of carbon sink. The carbon source in Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu are as high as 400 Mt or more, mainly concentrated in the eastern region. In addition, the growth rate of carbon source is much faster than that of carbon sink, especially the carbon emission caused by energy consumption, which leads to a general decline in CNC, and the development of CNC in various provinces is not optimistic. CNC and economic development level of most provinces are in a state of recession decoupling, and the coupling state of the provinces studied in certain years is significantly different. The spatial distribution of CNC and GDP has shown a northeast-southwest pattern. In addition, the influence of coal consumption structure on CNC is significantly negative, so we should optimize the energy consumption structure and increase the proportion of clean energy consumption. This study can make clear the current carbon neutrality capability of provinces in China, facilitate the formulation and adjustment of emission reduction strategies of provinces and cities, and help China to achieve carbon neutrality as soon as possible.