The construction and application of a carrying capacity evaluation model in a national park

This work applies ecological footprint analysis to establish the framework of a carrying capacity model for a national park. The model estimates changes in ecological footprint and biocapacity indicators for Taroko National Park (Taiwan) from 2002 to 2011. The findings indicate that: (1) In the past 10 years, the biocapacity status of Taroko National Park has remained within the environmental capacity; however, the per-capita ecological reserve decreased by 73.38 % between 2002 and 2011, from 0.085010 global hectares to 0.022633 global hectares. Evaluation of the ecological footprint intensity index reveals that the park has maintained a level 1 status, the highest ecological security level; (2) Linear estimation undertaken in the study predicts that when the ecological footprint intensity index reaches 0.5—when the ecological security level falls from level 1 (good) to level 2 (fair)—the critical tourist-carrying capacity would be 3,380,351 visitors per year, or 1.18 times the number of tourists in 2011. Furthermore, when the ecological footprint intensity index reaches 0.8—when the ecological security falls to level 3 (poor)—the critical tourist-carrying capacity would be 5,408,561 visitors per year, or 1.88 times the number of tourists in 2011. This work adopted the ecological footprint method and the threshold ecological footprint intensity index value to estimate the critical number of tourists for the sustainable biocapacity of Taroko National Park. The results are intended to serve as a reference for national park administrators to develop policies on tourist carrying capacity.