The economic impact of climate change (CC) on the Greek economy

The considerable relevant size of the tourism sector for some economies, together with this sector's vulnerability to CC, renders this study an insightful aid to tourism demand forecasting. The paper applies a pooled mean group (PMG) model to identify climate parameters that affect tourism demand. Then, it continues with an input–output table analysis to show the transmission effects of CC on each component of the tourism sector. The PMG model imposes homogeneity on the long-run coefficients and while less restrictive, it is more efficient than other methods of the same family. The estimated gravity equation enables comparisons of the baseline scenario with various different scenarios of CC and finds how tourist arrivals could be affected up to 2080. Our results suggest that there is mostly a positive relationship of the squared difference of temperature and precipitation between Greece and tourist origin countries. Our findings also suggest that CC could lead to a fall in Greek GDP between 1.79 and 2.61%. We believe that our findings will help design appropriate policy actions that may offset or alleviate these negative future negative impacts of CC.