Vehicle actuation based short-term traffic flow prediction model for signalized intersections

Traffic flow prediction is an important component for real-time traffic-adaptive signal control in urban arterial networks. By exploring available detector and signal controller information from neighboring intersections, a dynamic data-driven flow prediction model was developed. The model consists of two prediction components based on the signal states (red or green) for each movement at an upstream intersection. The characteristics of each signal state were carefully examined and the corresponding travel time from the upstream intersection to the approach in question at the downstream intersection was predicted. With an online turning proportion estimation method, along with the predicted travel times, the anticipated vehicle arrivals can be forecasted at the downstream intersection. The model performance was tested at a set of two signalized intersections located in the city of Gainesville, Florida, USA, using the CORSIM microscopic simulation package. Analysis results show that the model agrees well with empirical arrival data measured at 10 s intervals within an acceptable range of 10%–20%, and show a normal distribution. It is reasonably believed that the model has potential applicability for use in truly proactive real-time traffic adaptive signal control systems.