Human influence over 150 years of coastal evolution in the Volturno delta system (southern Italy)

This paper focused on the past shoreline change rates along the coastal plain of the Volturno River, in southern Italy, western Mediterranean. A wide database comprising historical maps, aerial photographs, topographic sheets, bathymetric data was used to extract the spatial and temporal information of the coastlines at seven time points. Coastline displacement was calculated for two successive time points and relative surface variation (accretion and erosion) was estimated as well as minimum and maximum accretion/erosion linear values and rates. The surface variation analysis has revealed that the studied coast can be considered homogeneous since the 1970s, whereas it exhibits a variety of shoreline evolutionary trends after that time period. Timing and causes of trends and rates of variation were detected. Based on the estimated shoreline change rates, an appropriate morhodynamic one-line model was applied to predict evolutionary scenarios also in presence of port and defence works. The results obtained strongly emphasize that a successful coastal management requires a constant monitoring of the human-induced changes to account for the variability of rates over time.