Evaluation of a new screening-level risk assessment tool applied to non-indigenous marine invertebrates in Canadian coastal waters

Screening-level risk assessment tools for non-indigenous species are useful to inform management and policy decisions. While a number of tools have been developed to evaluate the risk of introductions in terrestrial and freshwater environments, only one tool is available for marine invertebrates [Marine Invertebrate Invasiveness Scoring Kit (MI-ISK)] and it has not been calibrated or evaluated previously. This paper introduces the Canadian Marine Invasive Screening Tool (CMIST), a tool based on a series of questions related to the sequence of events in the invasion process. We assessed the performance of both CMIST and MI-ISK using 60 species/ecosystem combinations of non-indigenous marine invertebrate species known to have been introduced to three Canadian marine ecoregions. Assessment scores were compared to the results of an expert opinion survey about the level of ecological risk posed by these species in these ecoregions. In addition, a simple way to quantify uncertainty and compute confidence limits surrounding expert evaluations and CMIST scores is presented; the technique could be incorporated into other existing tools. The risk scores returned by the two tools generally were similar, had comparable levels of inter-assessor variability, and correlated well with the results of the expert opinion survey for two of the three ecoregions. In the third ecoregion, we believe the lack of highly problematic species and greater uncertainty (linked to less reliable information) contributed to the weaker correlation. For all ecoregions, CMIST scores were more strongly correlated with expert opinion scores when compared to MI-ISK scores. Finally, we demonstrate how CMIST can be used for new incursions; for each ecoregion we scored 15 additional species not yet introduced and compared these scores with those of species already present. Overall CMIST is a promising screening-level tool; it distinguishes between elements of invasion risk (likelihood and impact), has fewer questions to score than similar tools, and could easily be adapted for other taxa.