An experimentalist’s view of the uncertainties in understanding heavy element synthesis

The overall uncertainties in predicting heavy element synthesis cross sections are examined in terms of the uncertainties associated with the calculations of capture cross sections, fusion probabilities and survival probabilities. The values of the capture cross sections are known within a factor of two, the uncertainty in the values of the survival probabilities is no less than an order of magnitude with similar uncertainties in the fusion probabilities. Canceling errors may reduce the uncertainty in the overall predicted cross sections although for the heaviest nuclei (Z = 119 -120), the uncertainties in the predicted cross sections are a few orders of magnitude.