Predictors of mortality after emergency or elective repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm in a Japanese population

In Japan, there has been virtually no study in a population large enough to definitively demonstrate a relationship between the preoperative clinical features and postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. The aim of this study was to determine the preoperative variables that significantly predict postoperative mortality after emergency or elective repair in Japanese patients with infrarenal AAA. In this retrospective cohort study, we assessed significant predictors of postoperative mortality in 1055 consecutive patients undergoing emergency (n = 186) or elective repair (n = 869) of an infrarenal AAA at the University of Tokyo Hospital or Sakakibara Heart Institute (Tokyo, Japan). Using logistic regression analysis, anemia (hemoglobin <9 g/dl), shock (systolic blood pressure <80 mmHg), and hypocholesterolemia (total cholesterol <120 mg/dl) were found to be independent preoperative predictors of 30-day mortality after emergency repair for ruptured AAA. The hazard ratio (HR) (95 % confidence interval) for these three predictors was 5.96 (1.70–20.84), 8.48 (1.47–49.02), and 7.31 (1.96–27.35), respectively. In the elective repair cases, no significant preoperative predictor of postoperative mortality could be identified either within or beyond 30 days of surgery. Hypocholesterolemia, anemia, and shock were found to be independent preoperative predictors of a postoperative high mortality rate in Japanese patients undergoing emergency repair for ruptured infrarenal AAA.