The impacts of permafrost change on NPP and implications: A case of the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

This paper studies the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and annual average air temperature (GT) at 0cm above ground in permafrost regions by using revised Chikugo NPP model, cubic spline interpolating functions, and nonlinear regression methods. The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were selected as the research areas. Results illustrate that: (1) There is significant non-linear relationship between NPP and GT in various typical years; (2) The maximum value of NPP is 6.17, 5.87, 7.73, and 5.41 DM·t·hm−2·a−1 respectively, and the corresponding GT is 7.1, 10.0, 21.2, and 8.9°C respectively in 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2007; (3) In 1980, the sensitivity of NPP to GT is higher than in 1990, 2000 and 2007. This tendency shows that the NPP presents change from fluctuation to an adaptation process over time; (4) During 1980∼2007, the accumulated NPP was reduced to 8.05, and the corresponding carrying capacity of theoretical livestock reduced by 11%; (5) The shape of the demonstration region of ecological compensation system, livelihood support system, and science appraisal system in the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are an important research for increasing the adaptation capacity and balancing protection and development.