Long-term plankton community dynamics and influencing factors in a man-made shallow lake, Lake Dishui, China

Understanding how long-term environmental variation and biotic interaction determine biological assemblages is critical for evaluating the response of biological communities to anthropogenic and climate changes. We sampled plankton and water quality from a man-made lake monthly from 2006 to 2015 for the period from after creation to 13-year old of the lake. We used correlation, variation partitioning, multivariate autoregressive state-space models, and dynamic factor analyses to disentangle interactions of biotic and abiotic factors in regulating the dynamics of plankton size groups. We found that annual average total abundances decreased 86% for phytoplankton and 78% for zooplankton, while concentrations increased 1.8 times for total nitrogen and 2.7 times for total phosphorus during the study period. We concluded that the decline of plankton abundance was largely attributed to the predation of zooplankton on phytoplankton, fish predation on both phytoplankton and zooplankton, and linkages with the decline of water salinity, pH, and the increase of clarity. The decline of plankton abundance was apparently not resulted from long-term change in nutrient concentrations. These conclusions were further supported by that abundances of nano-phytoplankton and micro-phytoplankton oscillated in opposite direction with extremely low density of Cladocera (< 1 individual/L) during the study period. Our conclusions were also supported by the strong interactions between Rotifera and macro-phytoplankton and between nano-phytoplankton and Copepoda, as well as by the describability of the six plankton size groups in a shared trend that was opposite to the trends of water clarity and planktivorous fish stock density.