Consistent efficacy outcomes between phase 2 and phase 3 trials in Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis in adults: a meta-analysis

IntroductionThe approval of novel biologic agents and small molecules for the treatment of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) is dependent on phase 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, these trials sometimes fail to achieve the expected efficacy outcomes observed in phase 2 trials.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of RCTs that evaluated biologic agents and small molecules using paired regimens in both phase 2 and phase 3. We searched Medline, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases up until February 13, 2024. The revised Cochrane tool was utilized to assess the risk of bias. A generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) was employed to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for efficacy outcomes in phase 2 trials compared to phase 3.ResultsWe identified a total of 23 trials with 10 paired regimens for CD and 30 trials with 11 paired regimens for UC. The GLMM analysis revealed that phase 2 CD trials had higher outcomes measured by the Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI) by 9-13% without statistical significance: CDAI-150: OR, 1.12 (95% CI 0.83-1.51, p = 0.41); CDAI-100: OR, 1.09 (95% CI 0.88-1.35, p = 0.40); or CDAI-70: OR, 1.13 (95% CI 0.61-2.08, p = 0.66). For UC, two efficacy outcomes were estimated to be equally reported in phase 2/phase 3 pairs: clinical remission: OR, 1.00 (95% CI 0.83-1.20, p = 0.96); endoscopic improvement: OR, 0.98 (95% CI 0.83-1.15, p = 0.79). However, the rate of clinical response was underestimated in phase 2 by 19%: OR, 0.81 (95% CI 0.70-0.95, p = 0.03). The inclusion criterion for the type of Mayo score for UC had a significant interaction with the study phase to influence the difference in clinical response (p = 0.002).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the main efficacy outcomes for CD and UC remain consistent between phase 2 and phase 3 trials, except for UC response rates. The efficacy data obtained from phase 2 trials can be considered reliable for the design of subsequent phase 3 trials.Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42023407947).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the main efficacy outcomes for CD and UC remain consistent between phase 2 and phase 3 trials, except for UC response rates. The efficacy data obtained from phase 2 trials can be considered reliable for the design of subsequent phase 3 trials.Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42023407947).