Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

被引：18
|
作者：
Hanretty, Chris [1 ]
Lauderdale, Ben [2 ]
Vivyan, Nick [3 ]
机构：
[1] Univ E Anglia, Sch Polit Philosophy Language & Commun Studies, Eariham Rd, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
[2] Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Dept Methodol, London WC2A 2AE, England
[3] Univ Durham, Sch Govt & Int Affairs, Durham DH1 3HP, England
来源：
ELECTORAL STUDIES | 2016年 / 41卷
关键词：
National polling; Constituency polling; Uniform swing; Generalized normal swing;
D O I：
10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019
中图分类号：
D0 [政治学、政治理论];
学科分类号：
0302 ; 030201 ;
摘要：
We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：239 / 243
页数：5
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