A geographic information system for predicting weed changes on set-aside arable land

The Arable Area Payments Scheme of the European Union has been in operation since 1992, paying farmers to set aside a portion of their arable land from production for 1 to 5 yr. Management of the land is prescribed, both in terms of timing and type. The scheme is potentially beneficial to the environment, as set-aside land can be used to improve bird, mammal, and insect habitats. However, environmental and agronomic objectives frequently conflict, particularly in the area of weed management. To predict weed growth and succession, a tool was required to model vegetation at set-aside sites using the key environmental factors, location, and soil that could account for differences in the weed species likely to be invasive. To this end, a Geographical Information System has been developed that links modeled species distributions to a model of successional change. The system has a simple menu structure allowing speedy manipulation of the data and models to predict the effects of management on the weed communities at known geographical locations.