4G mobile in Europe: Business scenarios and implications for research policy

This paper examines different business scenarios for 4G in Europe and their potential policy implications. Both 'immediate' 4G scenarios, in which 3G is substituted in the short term by alternative technologies such as WLAN, as 'linear' 4G scenarios, in which 3G is sequentially followed up by a new high-bandwidth cellular technology, are examined. The paper argues that the immediate and long-term 4G visions are converging, especially in Europe, around the notion of full integration of WLAN (and other) technologies into cellular networks. It argues that Europe risks losing momentum vis-A-vis developments in other regions. It concludes that European research policy should aim at rapid 3G integration, and a number of elements for the strategic formulation of research policy in this field are outlined.