A co-integration approach to forecasting freight rates in the dry bulk shipping sector

In this paper, a vector autoregressive model is developed for a sample of ocean dry bulk freight rates. Although the series of freight rates are themselves found to be non-stationary, thus precluding the use of many modelling methodologies, evidence provided by cointegration tests points to the existence of stable long-term relationships between the series. An assessment of the forecasts derived from the model suggests that the specification of these long-term relationships does not improve the accuracy of short-or long-term forecasts. These results are interpreted as a corroboration of the efficient market hypothesis. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.