Prediction of preeclampsia utilizing the first trimester screening examination

OBJECTIVE: To derive a prediction rule for preeclampsia and early onset preeclampsia requiring delivery <34 weeks using first trimester maternal, ultrasound, and serum markers. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of women enrolled at first trimester screening. Maternal history, demographics, anthropometry, ultrasound parameters, and serum analytes were compared between women with preeclampsia and normal outcome. The prediction rule was derived by Lasso logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: In 2441 women, 108 (4.4%) women developed preeclampsia, and 18 (0.7%) early preeclampsia. Nulliparity, prior hypertension, diabetes, prior preeclampsia, mean arterial pressure, and the log pregnancy-associate pregnancy protein-A multiples of the median were primary risk factors. Prediction rules for preeclampsia/early preeclampsia had an area under the curve of 0.82/0.83 respectively. Preeclampsia was predicted with 49% sensitivity and early preeclampsia with 55% sensitivity for a 10% false positive rate. CONCLUSION: First trimester prediction rules using parameters currently available at first trimester screening identify a significant proportion of women with subsequent preeclampsia.