Flood risk forecast for China's Poyang Lake region

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China. An extensive levee system at the lake margins and along its major tributaries protects 10 million people from floods during the summer monsoon. Above-average precipitation is likely to occur during summer 2016 in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) basin, including the Poyang Lake region. This will result in (1) a high probability of above-average summer lake stage and (2) no less than a 20-25% probability of a severe flood, which is classified as lake stage 2 m above the long-term average maximum lake stage. This assessment is based on the relationship of floods in recent decades to El Niño-ENSO and the 2015-2016 El Niño. This forecast is for the period 1 May-31 August 2016, using data through January 2016. © 2016 Taylor & Francis.