Hydrological prediction in a non-stationary world

被引：532

作者：

Clarke, Robin T. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Fed Rio Grande Sul, Inst Pesquisas Hidraul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

来源：

HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES | 2007年 / 11卷 / 01期

关键词：

non-stationarity; river flow; South America;

D O I：

10.5194/hess-11-408-2007

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The paper discusses evidence that common assumptions in the analysis of hydrological time series (homogeneous variability in random fluctuations about a constant mean value) may not be appropriate for some South American drainage basins. Relatively rapid changes have occurred, and are occurring, as a consequence of replacing mature forest by short crops and urban development. Some research claims to have detected non-linear trends in streamflow in rivers draining the south-eastern part of the sub-continent, together with decadal fluctuations and interannual peaks at ENSO timescales. The paper discusses the implications Of Such changes for hydrological practices now in widespread and largely unquestioned use.

引用

页码：408 / 414

页数：7