A tale of two volatilities: Sectoral uncertainty, growth, and asset prices
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作者:
Segal, Gill
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Univ N Carolina, Kenan Flagler Business Sch, 300 Kenan Dr, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USAUniv N Carolina, Kenan Flagler Business Sch, 300 Kenan Dr, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA
Segal, Gill
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机构:
[1] Univ N Carolina, Kenan Flagler Business Sch, 300 Kenan Dr, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA
What is the impact of higher technological volatility on asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates? I find the answer hinges on its sectoral origin. Volatility that originates from the consumption (investment) sector drops (raises) macroeconomic growth rates and stock prices. Moreover, consumption (investment) sector's technological volatility has a positive (negative) market price of risk. I show that a quantitative two-sector DSGE model that features monopolistic power for firms and sticky prices, as well as early resolution of uncertainty, can explain the differential impact of sectoral volatilities on real and financial variables. In all, the sectoral decomposition of volatility can overturn the typical negative relation between aggregate volatility and economic activity. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机构:
Univ Calif Los Angeles UCLA, Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA
Natl Bur Econ Res NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USAUniv Calif Los Angeles UCLA, Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA
Herskovic, Bernard
Kind, Thilo
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Leibniz Inst Financial Res, Frankfurt, GermanyUniv Calif Los Angeles UCLA, Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA
Kind, Thilo
Kung, Howard
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机构:
London Business Sch, London, England
Ctr Econ Policy Res CEPR, London, EnglandUniv Calif Los Angeles UCLA, Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA
机构:
Univ Manchester, Sch Social Sci, Econ, Arthur Lewis Bldg,Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, EnglandUniv Manchester, Sch Social Sci, Econ, Arthur Lewis Bldg,Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, England