What Drives the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Growth? The Role of Human Capital, Institutional Quality, and Economic Development

The main goal of this paper is to empirically examine whether human capital, institutional quality, and economic development affect the relationship between export upgrading and economic growth. Different from most previous studies, which include an interaction term between export upgrading and a conditioning variable, this article applies an innovative dynamic panel threshold regression model to allow for non-linearity and an endogenous determination of the threshold location. The model is implemented using a panel data set of 56 developed and developing countries over the period of 1995-2015. Our main findings are twofold. First, the relation between export upgrading and economic growth appears to be non-linear. Second, we find evidence that export upgrading can only enhance economic growth in countries satisfying certain threshold prerequisites, regarding initial income level, human capital, and institutional quality.