Functional Size Measures and Effort Estimation in Agile Development: A Replicated Study

To help developers during the Scrum planning poker, in our previous work we ran a case study on a Moonlight Scrum process to understand if it is possible to introduce functional size metrics to improve estimation accuracy and to measure the accuracy of expert-based estimation. The results of this original study showed that expert-based estimations are more accurate than those obtained by means of models, calculated with functional size measures. To validate the results and to extend them to plain Scrum processes, we replicated the original study twice, applying an exact replication to two plain Scrum development processes. The results of this replicated study show that the accuracy of the effort estimated by the developers is very accurate and higher than that obtained through functional size measures. In particular, SiFP and IFPUG Function Points, have low predictive power and are thus not help to improve the estimation accuracy in Scrum.