Temperature-sensitive development shapes insect phenological responses to climate change

Phenological shifts vary within and among insect species and locations based on exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Shifts in environmental conditions and seasonal constraints along elevation and latitudinal gradients can select for differences in temperature sensitivity that generate differential phenological shifts. I examine the phenological implications of observed variation in developmental traits. Coupling physiological and ecological insight to link the environmental sensitivity of development to phenology and fitness offers promise in understanding variable phenological responses to climate change and their community and ecosystem implications. A key challenge in establishing these linkages is extrapolating controlled, laboratory experiments to temporally variable, natural environments. New lab and field experiments that incorporate realistic environmental variation are needed to test the extrapolations. Establishing the linkages can aid understanding and anticipating impacts of climate change on insects.