Comparison of Measures of Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders

Data for both sexual and violent recidivism for the Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM 2000), Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism (RRASOR), and Static-2002 are reported for 419 released sexual offenders assessed at the Regional Treatment Centre Sexual Offender Treatment Program. Data are analyzed by offender type as well as the group as a whole. Overall, the Static-2002 performed best for both outcomes, although differences between measures were not significant. The one exception to this was the RRASOR, which overall performed poorly. For rapists, the Static-2002 performed best for sexual recidivism, and the Risk Matrix 2000 performed best for violent recidivism. None of the measures performed well in predicting recidivism for child molesters. The components of the Static-2002 were examined in a regression analysis predicting sexual recidivism. Persistence of Sexual Offending and Age at Release were the only significant predictors for the group as a whole and for rapists. For child molesters, only the Deviant Sexual Interests component was significant. Results are discussed in terms of the current debate concerning age and risk for reoffence.