The Behavior of Seasonal Variations in Induced Seismicity in the Koyna-Warna Region, Western India

Based on the earthquake catalog data for the Koyna-Warna region of induced seismicity in western India, the seasonal variations in seismic activity associated with annual fluctuations in the reservoir water level are analyzed over the time span of the entire history of seismological observations in this region. The regularities in the time changes in the structure of seasonal variations are revealed. The seasonal seismic activity is minimal in May-June when the reservoir level is lowest. During the remaining part of the year, the activity has three peaks: the fall peak in September, winter peak in November-December, and spring peak in February-March. The first mentioned peak, which falls in the phase of the water level reaching its maximal seasonal value is considered as the immediate response of the fluid saturated medium to the additional loading under the weight of reservoir water. The two subsequent maxima concur with the decline phase in the reservoir level and are interpreted as the delayed response associated with the changes in the properties of the medium due to water diffusion. It is shown that the intensities of the immediate and delayed responses to the seasonal water level variations both vary with time as does their ratio. The probable factors affecting the variations in the intensity of the seasonal components of the reservoir-induced seismicity are discussed.