Time series model prediction and trend variability of aerosol optical depth over coal mines in India

A study of the assessment and management of air quality was carried out at 11 coal mines in India. Long-term observations (about 13 years, March 2000-December 2012) and modeling of aerosol loading over coal mines in India are analyzed in the present study. In this respect, the Box-Jenkins popular autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to simulate the monthly mean Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD(550 nm)) over 11 sites in the coal mines region. The ARIMA model was found as the most suitable model with least normalized Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and root mean square error and high value of R (2). Estimation was done with the Ljung-Box test. Finally, a forecast for a 3-year period from January 2013 to December 2015 was calculated which showed that the model forecasted values are following the observed trend quite well over all mining areas in India. The average values of AOD for the next 3 years (2013-2015) at all sites are found to be 0.575 +/- 0.13 (Raniganj), 0.452 +/- 0.12 (Jharia), 0.339 +/- 0.13 (Bokaro), 0.280 +/- 0.09 (Bishrampur), 0.353 +/- 0.13 (Korba), 0.308 +/- 0.08 (Talcher), 0.370 +/- 0.11 (Wardha), 0.35 +/- 0.10 (Adilabad), 0.325 +/- 0.09 (Warangal), 0.467 +/- 0.09 (Godavari Valley), and 0.236 +/- 0.07 (Cuddapah), respectively. In addition, long-term lowest monthly mean AOD(550) values are observed over Bishrampur followed by Cuddapah, Talcher, Warangal, Adilabad, Korba, Wardha, Godavari Valley, Jharia, and Raniganj. Raniganj and Jharia exhibit the highest AOD values due to opencast mines and extensive mining activities as well as a large number of coal fires. Similarly, the highest AOD values are observed during the monsoon season among all four seasons over all the mining sites. Raniganj exhibits the highest AOD value at all seasons and at all sites. In contrast, the lowest seasonal AOD values are observed during the post-monsoon season over Raniganj, Talcher, Wardha, Adilabad, Warangal, and Godavari Valley. Similarly, over Jharia, Bokaro, Bishrampur, Korba, and Cuddapah, the lowest AOD values are found in the winter season. Increasing trends in AOD(550) have been observed over Raniganj, Bokaro, Bishrampur, Korba, Talcher, and Wardha as well as over Adilabad and Godavari Valley, which is in agreement with previous works. Negative or decreasing AOD trend is found only over Jharia, Warangal, and Cuddapah without being statistically significant. Seasonal trends in AODs have also been studied in the present paper.