Recent demographic change in France

The rise in the period fertility index continued in 1998 and 1999, thanks to a strong recovery in fertility among women aged 30-40 and a stabilization in fertility at lower ages. In spite of this, completed fertility is expected to gradually decline after the 1960 birth cohort, falling below the replacement level(2.1). The overall number of abortions is stable though tending to increase slightly among young women and decline among older women. Following the strong recovery in 1996 consequent on tax law changes less favourable to unmarried couples with children, the increase in marriage is continuing at a more moderate level, though the proportion never-married at age 50 continues to rise rapidly. After a slight fall in 1996, the number of divorces remained stable in the next two years, and the period index stands at 38 divorces per 100 marriages. Assuming no further increase, the proportion of marriages ending in divorce will be 29% for couples married in 1970 and 35% for those married ten years later. For a number of years, men's life expectancy at birth has been rising slightly faster than that of women: at almost all ages, except for over 70, progress has been slightly better for men than for women. This new pattern appears to be due to the absence of improvements over certain cancers affecting women and even a deterioration for some smoking-related cancers.