Modeling Dynamic Consumer Decisions during Disruptions of Intermittent Water Supply Systems

Millions of people around the world rely on intermittent water supply systems ( IWS) where water supply is limited to specific hours during the day or to specific days in the week. During physical disruptions of the water network, the variables that affect consumer decisions are dynamic, and consumer behavior is affected by the attributes (in particular, length, and intensity) of the disruption. This study analyzes the short-term decision-making process of residential water consumers in a city in the Middle East. In this city, consumers have long adapted to the intermittency of water supply by installing household water storage with various capacities. However, the volumes of the stored water are often not sufficient to supply the regular household demand for the duration of the disruption, and consumers have to take actions regarding their water supply and/or water consumption. Based on the results of a survey of more than 250 households, a set of binary probit models were developed to model consumers' decisions related to the timing of their responses to the disruption, their willingness to pay for faster delivery of water using tankers, and their willingness to pay to avoid waiting in-line at the tankers' location. The results of the analysis show how variables such as household characteristics, tankers' prices and waiting times, consumers' knowledge of their households' water situation, prior experience with disruptions, and socioeconomic parameters affect the consumers' decisions when the piped IWS is disrupted.