Application of Cumulative Prospect Theory to Optimal Inspection Decision-Making for Ship Structures

The selection of optimal maintenance solutions under uncertainty is affected by the risk perception of decision-makers. The solution predicted by the minimum expected cost criterion may not conform to the preferences of decisionmakers. The aim of this paper is to develop a risk-informed maintenance decision-making framework for corroding ship structures considering risk perceptions. Cumulative prospect theory is employed to model the choice preferences under uncertainty. The optimal ship maintenance strategy is developed as a single goal to maximize the expected prospect value. The uniform inspection interval is assumed to be the only design variable and a condition-based repair policy is considered. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to obtain the distribution of the maintenance and failure costs within the considered service life. The application of the developed framework is demonstrated on a ship hull girder structure.