Technology foresight through patent data: an explorative analysis on the telecommunications equipment industry

Technology foresight is a useful methodology for detecting emerging technologies and understanding the evolution of whole industries. In this paper, a patent analysis on the telecommunications equipment sector is performed in order to understand which technological fields will be affected by scientific and applicative developments. Patents filed from 2002 to 2010 are employed to assess such fields, which are positioned on technology portfolio and technology evolution maps. A classification of technological areas into four categories is proposed, taking into account both their relevance and their growth rate. Results show that only few technological fields are strongly stressed in R&D efforts carried out by firms, but the instrument detects many emerging technologies and potential new business opportunities, which have really transformed the industry. No drastic shifts from non-relevant to relevant commitment, and vice versa, were discovered, even though specific evolution paths were uncovered among the technological areas.