Survival rates of Redshank Tringa totanus wintering on the Moray Firth

Long-term mark-recapture data were used to estimate the annual survival rates of Redshank wintering on the Moray Firth in Scotland. Survival modelling required the exclusion of all birds caught during the main passage months (August, March and April), and a highly variable annual catching effort limited the precision of annual survival estimates. Survival rates of juvenile Redshank (between the first and second winters of life) varied markedly from year to year and averaged 43% (se 3.6%). Adult survival rates were less variable between years and were age-dependent, with 67% (se 5.0%) surviving and returning between the second and third winters of life, compared to 74% (se 1.4%) for older birds. Year-to-year variation in adult survival was weakly (and negatively) related to the number of snow days in winter Year-to-year variation in first-year survival was non-linearly related to winter rainfall, with low survival during dry (and cold) winters, higher survival during winters with average rainfall and lower survival during wet winters. Having accounted for these weather relationships there was no evidence that survival was related to the size of the local wintering Redshank population. Organized annual ringing programmes of wintering waders on British estuaries have the potential to monitor long-term changes in survival rates and productivity. Although constant effort sampling may be difficult to achieve for wintering waders, the utility of mark-recapture data collected on estuaries is likely to depend heavily on careful study design.