Estimates Of Health Care Professional Shortages In Sub-Saharan Africa By 2015

This paper uses a forecasting model to estimate the need for, supply of, and shortage of doctors, nurses, and midwives in thirty-nine African countries for 2015, the target date of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. We forecast that thirty-one countries will experience needs-based shortages of doctors, nurses, and midwives, totaling approximately 800,000 health professionals. We estimate the additional annual wage bill required to eliminate the shortage at about $ 2.6 billion (2007 $ US)-more than 2.5 times current wage-bill projections for 2015. We illustrate how changes in workforce mix can reduce this cost, and we discuss policy implications of our results. [Health Affairs 28, no. 5 (2009): w849-w862 (published online 6 August 2009; 10.1377/hlthaff.28.5.w849)]