Long-range outlook for US paper and paperboard demand, technology, and fiber supply-demand equilibria

This paper summarizes preliminary results of a long-range economic assessment of future U.S. paper and paperboard demand, technology, and fiber supply-demand equilibria, with projections to the year 2050. Slower growth is projected in U.S. population, with increasing gross domestic product per capita. While growth in paper and paperboard demand per capita is projected to decelerate, overall consumption is projected to increase with growing population. Trade is projected to increase in the long run, but future trade flows will remain small relative to domestic production. Slower growth is projected in rates of paper recovery and recycling as the United States reaches high levels of paper recycling. Wood residues are projected to decline in pulpwood supply, and pulpwood harvest and stumpage prices are projected to increase, particularly in the U.S. South. Short-rotation woody crop supply from agricultural land is projected to become increasingly important as an economical source of fiber supply in the long run.