On future ship safety - people, complexity and systems

This paper considers the characteristics of risk and the important influences of the human element, innovative solutions and complex engineered systems on the future of maritime safety. Residual risk remains once all practicable steps have been taken to manage the risks associated with any undertaking. For complex engineered systems, and these include modern merchant ships, there will always be a limit on the attainable level of safety, where human performance and technical issues such as complexity and novelty will dominate the residual risk and the causes of incidents. Recent work has also shown a divergence between the historical record and the perception of risks held by a range of maritime professionals. This divergence may explain some of the maritime incidents that appear to be the consequence of apparently inexplicable acts. The paper sets out some of the issues relating to residual risk. It concludes by considering the future of ship safety, and the effective regulation of safety for future ships, taking into consideration people, systems and the management of risk.