Probabilistic Quantification of Wind Power Curtailment Based on Intra-Seasonal Wind Forecasting Approach

With the increase in integration of variable renewable generation into power grids, challenges regarding the utilization of their variable output power has increased. During low demand periods with highly wind power penetration, system reliability, stability and flexibility are disturbed. To eliminate these challenges, power curtailment appears to be one of the key solutions. With proper understanding of the amount of power to be curtailed, system flexibility can be improved. This paper provides quantification of wind power curtailment which helps system operators determine whether to utilize or curtail the generated power to increase system flexibility. The paper employs probabilistic approach in estimating wind output power to determine the amount of power to be curtailed at different buses during different seasons. A radial distribution system with 5 buses is used as a test system to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Annual hourly wind speed and electric load data are considered in this study.