Detection and attribution of lake-level dynamics in north-eastern central Europe in recent decades

The lake-rich glacial landscapes of north-eastern central Europe play an important role in the preservation and use of water resources, including protection of biodiversity, carbon storage and promotion of tourism. With a view to the last c. 20 years and the future, a regional 'syndrome of water shortage' has been frequently stated, which impairs particularly peatlands, flowing waters and lakes. Accordingly, the overall question addressed in this study is: What can regional and local gauging records tell us about decadal hydrological changes of lakes and their catchments? In the study area, most of the gauging records of lakes begin only in the late 1990s. Forty-five lake-level records were analysed by hierarchical agglomerative clustering, looking for the trend in the 1999-2008 time window. The analyses show that lake levels had varying dynamics, namely a negative, unclear or even a positive trend. The proportional shares of these three groups are 23 (51 %) to 15 (34 %) to 7 lakes (15 %), respectively. In group 1, largely groundwater-fed lakes, lake-level changes depend on groundwater-level changes. These are controlled by decreasing groundwater recharge in the catchments, which are caused by specific seasonal weather conditions in the observation period, and the impact of the dominating pine forests, which consume high quantities of water. In group 2, mainly stream lakes, direct human impact drives the lake levels through the management of weirs and ground sills. Nearly all lakes in group 3, consisting of river, stream and spring lakes, were subject to impoundment measures initiated by local rewetting projects. Thus, an important finding with respect to the impact of climate and land use is the fact that the ('natural') lakes of the region, primarily fed by groundwater and precipitation, show a predominantly negative lake-level trend in the period studied. Beyond the 10-year-time window analysed, further regional data show that periodic lake-level fluctuations with amplitudes of c. 1-2(-3) m are characteristic for regional groundwater-fed lakes.