Safety risk assessment by Monte Carlo - Simulation of complex safety critical operations

This paper gives an overview of performing safety risk assessment of a safety critical operation with support of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The approach is outlined for an air traffic example involving aircraft departing from a runway, which is occasionally crossed by taxiing aircraft. At the airport considered, a Runway Incursion Alert System (RIAS) is installed to warn the air traffic controller in case of impending runway incursions. The paper explains the key issues to be mastered in performing a MC simulation supported safety risk assessment of this kind of operation. To begin with, one has to develop an appropriate simulation model, and a sound way to speed up the MC simulation based on this model. Complementary, one has to validate the simulation model versus the real operation, and the simulation supported approach has to be embedded within the safety risk assessment of the total operation. For this application example MC simulation results are given and the way of feedback to the design of the operation is outlined.