Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system

被引：204

作者：

Kriegler, Elmar ^{[1
,2
]}

Hall, Jim W. ^{[3
,4
]}

Held, Hermann ^{[1
]}

Dawson, Richard ^{[3
,4
]}

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim ^{[1
,5
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

[2] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

[3] Univ Newcastle, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England

[4] Newcastle Univ, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England

[5] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England

[6] Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2009年 / 106卷 / 13期

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会; 美国安德鲁·梅隆基金会;

关键词：

climate change; expert elicitation; MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; EL-NINO; ICE-SHEET;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.0809117106

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2-4 degrees C) and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 degrees C) relative to year 2000 levels.

引用

页码：5041 / 5046

页数：6

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