Decomposition of the US CO2 emissions and its mitigation potential: An aggregate and sectoral analysis

The United States (US), the largest economy in the world, emits more carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions each year than any country except China. Therefore, to mitigate the country's CO2 emissions effectively, it is essential to identify the driving forces of its emission changes. Using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, this study decomposes US aggregate and sectoral emissions changes between 1997 and 2016 into six factors. Also, to seek for the possible mitigation pathways of the US emissions over the period 2020-2030, a scenario analysis is employed. The results indicate that: (1) For the growth of US emissions over 1997-2016, the main influencing factor is the scale effect (income and population), while the technology effect (energy intensity and emission coefficient) is the key driving force in mitigating US emissions; (2) although the structure effect (economic structure and energy consumption structure) also has a mitigating effect on US emissions, it plays a comparatively minor role; and (3) the forecast results suggest that the 2020 target released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can be achieved under the moderate and advanced scenarios, while the 2025 target cannot be achieved under the three scenarios.