Modelling species distributions to predict areas at risk of invasion by the exotic aquatic New Zealand mudsnail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray 1843)

被引:17
|
作者
Alexandre da Silva, Marcos Vinicios [1 ]
Nunes Souza, Joao Vitor [1 ]
Botelho de Souza, Jose Roberto [1 ]
Vieira, Leandro M. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Fed Pernambuco, Ctr Biociencias, Dept Zool, Recife, PE, Brazil
关键词
climate change; freshwater; invasive species; invertebrates; population; RAPID ASSESSMENT SURVEY; CLIMATE-CHANGE; POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION; LIMNOPERNA-FORTUNEI; BIOCLIMATIC MODELS; BALLAST WATER; GLOBAL CHANGE; PARANA RIVER; GREAT-LAKES; SNAIL;
D O I
10.1111/fwb.13323
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
The use of bioclimatic models to predict areas subject to invasion by exotic species has been important in the development of preventive conservation measures. The native New Zealand mudsnail Potamopyrgus antipodarum is an invasive mollusc, now with a worldwide distribution, that causes economic and ecological problems in invaded areas and has recently been designated as one of the 100 worst invasive species in Europe. In this study we sought to determine the potential distribution of and areas susceptible to invasion by P. antipodarum in South America and worldwide, in present and future scenarios (2070), using MaxEnt models. The models were developed using georeferenced occurrence data and bioclimate and hydroclimate variables to predict scenarios of the geographical distribution of P. antipodarum. Possible routes of invasion into South America were predicted. Present-day scenario of the worldwide distribution (all known occurrences) of P. antipodarum, based on the bioclimatic and hydroclimatic models, are highly accurate, with area under curve higher than of 0.87. The models indicated that environmentally suitable areas exist in South America and in other regions of the world where the species has not yet been recorded. The predicted susceptibility includes approximately 80 protected areas in the South American continent. Models projected in an optimistic and pessimistic future scenario, based on the worldwide distribution, show increased environmental suitability of regions outside the current species distribution, including Brazil (south-west), Uruguay (near Mirim Lagoon), Nigeria, Ethiopia (lakes Tana and Chomen), Tanzania, Cameroon (bordering lakes Bamendjing, Bankim, and Mbakaou), Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi (Lake Tanganyika environs), Uganda, Tanzania (Naivasha), and South Africa (surrounding Gordon's Bay). The main vector for dispersal to South America would be ballast water coming from waterways and ports located in the predicted areas. Fish farming is also a possible route, since the mudsnail is resistant to the digestive tract of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Current records and predicted susceptible areas coincide with port areas and sites where this fish is farmed. Geographical distribution modelling proved to be helpful in identifying environmentally suitable areas for the invasion of P. antipodarum. The model also suggests a future expansion of the species distribution, possibly affected by climate change.
引用
收藏
页码:1504 / 1518
页数:15
相关论文
共 25 条
  • [21] Natural variability and response interpretation of fecundity, vertebrate-like sex-steroid levels and energy status in the New Zealand mudsnail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray)
    Gust, M.
    Mouthon, J.
    Queau, H.
    Dussart, C.
    Buronfosse, T.
    Garric, J.
    GENERAL AND COMPARATIVE ENDOCRINOLOGY, 2011, 172 (02) : 243 - 250
  • [22] Variation in predator-induced behavioral changes in introduced and native populations of the invasive New Zealand mud snail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum Gray, 1843)
    Levri, Edward P.
    Landis, Sarah
    Smith, Brittany
    Colledge, Elissa
    Metz, Elizabeth
    Li, Xiaosong
    AQUATIC INVASIONS, 2017, 12 (04) : 499 - 508
  • [24] A new species of Atriophallophorus Deblock & Rose, 1964 (Trematoda: Microphallidae) described from in vitro-grown adults and metacercariae from Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray, 1843) (Mollusca: Tateidae)
    Blasco-Costa, I
    Seppaelae, K.
    Feijen, F.
    Zajac, N.
    Klappert, K.
    Jokela, J.
    JOURNAL OF HELMINTHOLOGY, 2020, 94 : e108
  • [25] Using joint species distribution modelling to predict distributions of seafloor taxa and identify vulnerable marine ecosystems in New Zealand waters
    Stephenson, Fabrice
    Bowden, David A.
    Rowden, Ashley A.
    Anderson, Owen F.
    Clark, Malcolm R.
    Bennion, Matthew
    Finucci, Brittany
    Pinkerton, Matt H.
    Goode, Savannah
    Chin, Caroline
    Davey, Niki
    Hart, Alan
    Stewart, Rob
    BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION, 2024, 33 (11) : 3103 - 3127