The Impact of Potential Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement Renegotiation on the Korean Rice Market and Trade

Korea replaced its rice import quota with a tariff rate quota (TRQ) in 2015. A structural model representing the Korean rice market is developed to evaluate this new trade policy and examine the possibility of Korean rice imports under uncertainty. Results indicate that rice imports in excess of the current TRQ quantity are unlikely for a range of market conditions. Two scenarios, which are the over-quota tariff rate reduction and the TRQ quantity expansion, show how the market responds to policy changes. In addition, Korean rice imports are sensitive to consumer preferences for different rice types.