Air Force Research Laboratory Space Technology Value Model: Creating capabilities for future customers

The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) develops space technologies to provide future warfighting capabilities of the U.S. Air Force. In 2001, AFRL asked Toffler Associates to help develop and implement a Space Technology Value Model to identify future warfighting capabilities and help develop the best space R&D portfolio to provide these capabilities. We describe the model development process, and illustrate how the value model was used to improve resource allocation decision-making. This methodology has been used for two POM cycles. We used Value-Focused Thinking and some new techniques for analyzing R&D portfolios, including an explicit model of risk and a nonlinear aggregation of project value into portfolio value.