EXTERNAL CREDIT AND MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES IN EMERGING MARKETS: SOME STYLIZED FACTS

This study focuses on background information of the aggregate economy and fluctuating situations in emerging countries with respect to external credit shocks. In particular, the study describes the changing nature of some selected emerging market business cycle from 1970-2015. Hence, the study demonstrated the cyclical properties of a large annual number of macroeconomic time series for a group of 6 (six) emerging countries, using a statistical technique with a modified version of the Hodrick-Prescott (1997; HP) filter as developed by McDermott (1997). It discussed the cross-correlation patterns between output and macroeconomic time series of the sampled countries and attempted to identify relatively robust regularities that can guide theoretical research in macroeconomics. The evidence of the study holds relevance not only for Nigeria, but for other economies that have undergone economic transition and reforms. An important finding is that emerging economies are characterized by higher output (real GDP) volatility, which made them more suscecible to external shocks. While Nigeria is more prone to output volatility than any of the sampled economies, external sources of credit shocks have impacted more on real economic activities of Nigeria than the domestic sources.