A probabilistic approach to detect structural problems in flexible pavement sections at network level assessment

Presently, most of the road agencies use Non-Destructive (NDT) tools to help them prioritise pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) activities at the network level, thus optimising the limited budgetary resources. One of the most widely used NDT techniques for pavement structural evaluations, at the network level assessment, is the Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD). Using a database comprising of a wide array of typical layer moduli and thicknesses of traditional flexible pavements, that were generated based on multiple Monte Carlo numerical simulations, as a reference datum, this study successfully developed probabilistic models that allow for analysing the condition of a flexible pavement, at the network level, from FWD surface deflection data, namely the Deflection Bowl Parameters (DBPs), to identify which layers of the pavement structure present a probability of structural failure or damage.