Hydrological modelling of the Kangsabati river under changed climate scenario: case study in India

India is a large developing country with nearly two-thirds of the population depending directly on the climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forests. A very well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R-2 = 09968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Kangsabati river watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal, India, for a year including monsoon and non-monsoon period in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural activities. Evapotranspiration, transmission losses, potential evapotranspiration and lateral flow to reach are evaluated from the years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable development of the river basin and its inhabitants. The projected climate change under various scenarios is likely to have implications on food production, water supply, biodiversity and livelihoods. India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation. This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building, networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a commitment towards the planning, management and development of the water resources of the Kangsabati river by presenting detailed future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin over the mentioned time period. The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content, potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041-2050. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.