Decision support models for the definition of the crop sowing period and the technological pattern of wheat cultivation

The present work is aimed at analyzing the efficiency of decision support models which are based on mathematical programming to help with the choice of the adequate period for sowing, as well as, the technological pattern (high, medium and low yield) to the cultivation of wheat in relation to the losses which can be caused by frost, giberella, hail and excessive rain during the harvest season. The economical results were defined from data gathered in a group of 27 production units in Ijui and surroundings. The levels and probabilities of the losses were estimated through review of specialized literature, also considering the experience of farmers and technicians of the region. It was suggested that the model which provided more support for the decision taking was the maximization model of gross margin restricted to reaching a determined economical result in a pre-established probability.