Typhoon disaster in China: prediction, prevention, and mitigation

被引:77
|
作者
Liu, Defu [1 ]
Pang, Liang [1 ]
Xie, Botao [1 ]
机构
[1] Ocean Univ China, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Qingdao 266003, Peoples R China
关键词
Typhoon disaster; Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution; Prediction; Prevention criteria; EXTREME-VALUE DISTRIBUTION;
D O I
10.1007/s11069-008-9262-2
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Typhoon-induced disaster is one of the most important factors influencing the economic development and more than 250 million in China. In view of the existing state of typhoon disaster prediction, prevention, and mitigation, this paper proposes a new probability model, Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD), to predict typhoon-induced extreme disaster events. This model establishes prevention criteria for coastal areas, offshore structures, and estuarine cities, and provides an appropriate mitigation scheme for disaster risk management and decision-making.
引用
收藏
页码:421 / 436
页数:16
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